- Phase One (Orient) – creates a clearly articulated issue/question
- Phase Two (Explore) – identifies all driving forces.
- Phase Three (Synthesize) – prioritizes driving forces
- Phase Four (Act) – crafts the strategic agenda
- Phase Five (Monitor) – signals the need for tweaks to the strategic agenda
Gather the scenario frameworks from the Synthesize phase and fully immerse yourself in their narratives. Imagine that the future circumstances of each scenario are really occurring and ask yourself:
- What actions would I take today to prepare?
- What could I do to increase the likelihood that this scenario will come true?
- What could I do to decrease the likelihood that this scenario will come true?
Answering the questions will reveal scenario implications for each scenario. If the scenario describes a future in which there is reduced government funding and a weak economy, it is safe to deduce that one implication would result in less funding for the organization. It may also expedite innovative approaches the organization has wanted the opportunity to explore as another possible implication.
Your strategic agenda will start to emerge as you reflect on the implications of each scenario.
Begin by searching for implications common to all scenarios because they represent the lowest level of risk. The same implication present in each scenario will make it most likely to come true in the future. One implication likely to be present in all scenarios for a not-for-profit organization is funding shortfalls regardless of government funding or the strength of the economy. Basing your strategy on funding shortfalls is fairly safe.
Relying on a scenario implication that is singularly different from other scenarios represents the highest level of risk because there is a lower likelihood that it will come true. Basing your strategy on the future outcome of an election is risky for the organization.
“The test of a good set of scenarios is not whether in the end it turns out to portray the future accurately but whether it enables an organization to learn, adapt and take effective action.” (P.30, What if? The Art of Scenario Thinking for NonProfits)
Monitoring the strategic agenda is often the stage that gets sidelined by the day-to-day routine of the organization. Monitoring involves watching for signals indicating changes in the environment potentially impacting the organization and its strategic agenda.
The key to the Monitor phase is selecting the correct signals to watch by identifying a set of ‘leading indicators’. They should contain a mix of qualitative and quantitative information from the local, national and international contexts. Then take some time to make adjustments to your strategic agenda.
Over the next few posts I will be briefly summarizing how to do Scenario Thinking. They will not be super compelling but they will be concise summaries serving as a quick and accessible reference.
What if? The Art of Scenario Thinking for NonProfits has outlined five basic phases (Orient, Explore, Synthesis, Act, Monitor) to be used as a guide and can be easily adapted to better suit your context.
Phase One: Orient
The scenario planning process begins by determining the issue/question to be explored. Working through the Orient phase will result in a clearly articulated issue/question to which all other scenario thinking phases will be tethered.
Begin by determining the time horizon (5 yrs., 10 yrs., 20 yrs.) for the scenario thinking initiative. Next, conduct one-on-one interviews with organizational decision-makers and external thought leaders to identify organizational challenges. Be sure to keep the questions broad and open ended to reveal the underlying assumptions and hidden beliefs people have.
Looking for patterns in your interviews will reveal the question/issue to be addressed throughout the rest of the scenario thinking process. It should be articulated as objectively as possible and cover the same time horizon used in the interviews. Two possible examples below.
Over the next “x” years, should the organization pursue a path towards growth?
Over the next “x” years, which initiatives/programs/projects should the organization shed in order to be more agile?
Can you think of three possible interview questions? Now put the questions through the liminal thinking lens. Will they reveal the interviewee’s beliefs and needs?
When I first began reading about scenario thinking I was equal parts intrigued and skeptical. If resources are already stretched and people are already too busy, how does an organization allow itself the time and space to ensure the initiative has a chance at success?
For successful scenario thinking, the authors of What if? The Art of Scenario Thinking for NonProfits recommend the organization be:
- oriented towards learning by engaging in authentic conversations about its warts and wonders.
- comfortable with not being comfortable by intentionally and constantly acquainting itself with change
- open to hearing divergent perspectives to unlock the otherwise unrealized opportunities or mitigate previously unnoticed threats.
- comfortable with implementing change where and when needed.
- lead by someone who understands and champions the scenario thinking process including the implementation of its discoveries.
- willing to commit the resources needed to do the work.
The authors also supplied an excellent initial litmus test you can use to determine organizational readiness for scenario thinking (What if? The Art of Scenario Thinking for NonProfits, p.21)
Do not use scenario thinking when…
- the problem you are dealing with is not central to your organizational strategy and/or your problem and solution are clear.
- the outcome is largely predetermined due to internal or external factors.
- the leadership want to maintain the status quo.
- there is too much urgency to step back for a reflective and creative conversation.
- your desired outcomes are poorly aligned with your dedicated resources.
Your situation is ideal for scenario thinking if….
- you are dealing with a strategic issue and the solution is unclear.
- you are working in a highly uncertain environment.
- there is leadership support for the scenario thinking process.
- your organization is open to change and dialogue.
- you can attract the resources necessary for a successful initiative.